Factbox-Brokerages expect 25-bps US rate cut in December ahead of CPI data

Factbox-Brokerages expect 25-bps US rate cut in December ahead of CPI data

(Reuters) – Major brokerages, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Goldman Sachs, have reiterated their expectation of a quarter-point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, ahead of key consumer price index (CPI) data due later on Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters expect headline inflation to increase 0.3% in November on a monthly basis, taking the annual rate to 2.7% from 2.6% in October. The CPI data is the last piece of crucial economic data to be released ahead of the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting due on Dec. 17-18.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages before the CPI data:

Rate cut estimates (in bps)

Brokerages Dec’2024 2025 Fed Funds Rate

BofA Global 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of

Research June)

Barclays (LON:BARC) 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of

2025)

Macquarie 25

25 4.00%-4.25%

Goldman Sachs 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through

(through September 2025)

September

2025)

J.P.Morgan 25 75(throug 3.75% (through

h September 2025)

September

2025)

*UBS Global 25 125 3.00%-3.25% (through

Research end of 2025)

TD Securities 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through

end of 2025)

Morgan Stanley 25 100 3.375% (Q4 2025)

(through

June

2025)

Jefferies 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through

end of 2025)

Nomura – 50 4.125% (through end

of 2025)

*UBS Global Wealth 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through

Management end of 2025)

Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) 25 No Rate 4.375%

Cuts

Citigroup (NYSE:C) –

25 3.00%-3.25% (H1

2025)

Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 25 – –

HSBC

25 100 3.25%-3.50%

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

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